short term – Piazza Carlo Giuliani http://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/ Sat, 12 Mar 2022 00:17:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.9.3 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/cropped-icon-1-32x32.png short term – Piazza Carlo Giuliani http://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/ 32 32 The war in Ukraine has raised long-term inflation expectations https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/the-war-in-ukraine-has-raised-long-term-inflation-expectations/ Sat, 12 Mar 2022 00:17:10 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/the-war-in-ukraine-has-raised-long-term-inflation-expectations/

Inflation continues to rise in many countries. Until recently, central banks such as the ECB or the Swiss National Bank viewed the current rise in inflation as temporary, albeit more persistent than expected. They attributed the high inflation rates to base effects, supply bottlenecks and demand shifts, all related to the pandemic, and expected these transitory factors to decline over the course of the year. the year. As long as long-term inflation expectations remained anchored, core inflation should be stable and close to central bank targets.

However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting economic disruption could fundamentally upset this assessment. For the world economy, Russia and Ukraine are important suppliers of raw materials such as energy, metals and agricultural products. The war called into question the supply of these resources and accelerated the evolution of their price. It is feared that a further increase in the price of these factors of production will translate into higher operating and manufacturing costs, which in turn translates into higher prices and ever-higher inflation expectations. (D’Acunto and Weber 2022). Indeed, oil shocks are historically known to fuel inflation expectations and unanchor the expectations of consumers and price makers (Coibion ​​and Gorodnichenko 2015, Coibion ​​et al. 2018).

To determine whether the Russian invasion of Ukraine has affected corporate inflation expectations, I use data from a special survey of Swiss companies conducted by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich. The companies surveyed are companies from all economic sectors in Switzerland, with the exception of agriculture. As part of this survey, companies were asked where they expected the annual inflation rate of the consumer price index in Switzerland to be over the next 12 months (short term) and next five years (long term). There were no response options limiting company assessments to answer these quantitative questions. Companies were free to formulate their expectations as a numerical value (in percentage).

The empirical strategy then exploits the fact that the investigation was launched just before and conducted during the Russian invasion. This configuration makes it possible to identify the effects induced by the war on companies’ inflation expectations by comparing the answers of companies which answered the survey before February 24 (the first day of the war) with those of companies which responded after the outbreak of war. As the survey was conducted electronically, it is possible to determine the exact response time of the companies: 652 companies responded before the invasion, 258 companies since. The analysis takes into account all responses received at the time of writing (9 March).

Figure 1 shows the distributions of 12-month (left panel) and 5-year (right panel) inflation expectations responses separately for groups of firms that responded before and during the war.

Figure 1 Inflation expectations of Swiss companies

To note: This figure plots the distributions of 12-month (left panel) and 5-year (right panel) inflation expectations responses separately for groups of firms that responded before and during the war. The vertical lines show the group-specific mean values. Responses greater than 20% in absolute values ​​are excluded.

In the short term, inflation expectations are almost the same for both groups. Before the start of the war, Swiss companies expected the inflation rate to reach 2.10% (median: 2.00%) on average over the next twelve months. Since the beginning of the war, the expected increase in consumer prices is 2.12% (median: 2.00%). Thus, Swiss companies estimated that the inflation rate over one year would be higher than the inflation rate known to most participants at the time of the survey. Actual inflation was 1.6% in January 2022.1 Moreover, the median and mean values ​​are close to each other, indicating an overall fairly condensed distribution. The cross-sectional standard deviation of inflation expectations is only 1.54% before the war and 1.55% during the war.

In the long term, inflation expectations have increased since the Russian invasion from 2.37% (median: 2.00%) to 2.75% (median: 2.00%). We can use a regression model to test if this difference is statistically significant. The advantage of such a model is that other factors can also be taken into account, such as the size or the sector of activity of a company. The estimate shows that the increase in five-year inflation expectations is statistically significant at the 5% significance level. This suggests that after the outbreak of the war, Swiss companies expect higher consumer prices in the long term than before the war.

Figure 2 documents the systematic heterogeneity across firms in long-term inflation expectations by showing the effects of conditional mean treatment with 90% confidence limits. Differentiated by sectors, the left panel shows that companies in the manufacturing sector are the source of higher expected inflation since the start of the war. Their long-term inflation expectations have increased by 0.7 percentage point on average. This result seems plausible because these firms are closer in the value chain to input factors such as energy and other raw materials, the prices of which rose significantly during the war. On the other hand, there is no significant change in the expectations of companies in the construction or service sectors.

Figure 2 Heterogeneity of long-term inflation expectations between companies

To note: This chart shows the effects of the conditional mean treatment (with 90% confidence limits) of the Russian invasion on firms’ long-term inflation expectations by sector (left panel), firm size (middle panel) and the evolution of profit margins over the last five years (right panel).

The middle panel shows the effect of firm size. Small and medium-sized companies with less than 250 employees tend to report higher long-term inflation expectations than large companies since the Russian invasion. Finally, the panel on the right distinguishes according to the evaluation of companies whether the profit margin of their main product or service has increased or decreased over the last five years. Inflation expectations have risen for companies whose margins have shrunk in recent years. Rising energy and commodity prices are already reducing profits for many companies. Therefore, the result might suggest that firms facing margin pressures are more likely to expect to pass on higher prices for their inputs by raising their own prices.

Indeed, companies confirm that higher operating and manufacturing costs impact their prices. As part of the survey, companies were also asked about the reasons for changing prices.2 Specifically, the survey asked companies to rate a range of factors such as labor cost or competitor price changes based on their importance to price adjustments with points ranging from 1 (“completely unimportant”) and 4 (“very important”). These ratings were collected separately for price increases and price decreases.

The average odds for most factors are higher for price increases than for price decreases. Exceptions to this observation are market conditions such as the intention to gain market share, changes in competitor prices or changes in demand. Taken together, this observation highlights asymmetries in price drivers: cost changes are the most important factor for price increases. On the other hand, market conditions are driving price declines. Figure 3 illustrates these asymmetries by showing the difference in average score for each factor and by sector. The results show a surprisingly regular pattern of positive asymmetries in costs and negative asymmetries in market conditions.

picture 3 Asymmetries of factors influencing prices

To note: Companies were asked to rate the factors according to their importance for price adjustments with points ranging from 1 (“completely unimportant”) to 4 (“very important”). These ratings were collected separately for price increases and price decreases. This figure shows for each factor and sector the difference between its average score for a price increase and its average score for a price decrease.

Beyond that, the figure shows that these asymmetries are not the same in all sectors. In particular, higher supplier prices, higher raw material costs, and higher energy and fuel prices – all of which are rising sharply following the Russian invasion – are more important in explaining the increases. prices in the manufacturing sector than in construction or services.

Conclusion

The results of a special survey on pricing behavior show that following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the long-term inflation expectations of Swiss companies increased significantly, especially in the manufacturing sector. In manufacturing, rising input costs, such as rising energy and commodity prices, are particularly important in driving price increases. These results reinforce concerns that, as price pressures widen, inflation expectations could become less anchored, making headline inflationary pressures much more persistent.

The references

Blinder, A, E Canetti, D Lebow and J Rudd (1998), Asking about prices: a new approach to understanding price stickinessRussell Sage Foundation.

Coibion, O and Y Gorodnichenko (2015), “Is the Phillips curve alive after all? Inflation expectations and missing disinflation”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7(1): 197-232.

Coibion, O, Y Gorodnichenko and S Kumar (2018), “How Do Firms Shape Their Expectations? New Survey Data”, American Economic Review 108(9): 2671-2713.

D’Acunto, F and M Weber (2022), “Rising inflation is worrisome. But not for the reasons you think”, VoxEU.org, 4 January.

Fabiani, S, M Druant, I Hernando, C Kwapil, B Landau, C Loupias, F Martins, T Mathae, R Sabbatini, H Stahl, A Stokman (2005), “The behavior of firm prices in the euro zone: new evidence investigation”, ECB Working Paper No 535.

Endnotes

1 The inflation rate for February was only published on March 3 and amounts to 2.2%.

2 The wording of these questions is adapted from Blinder et al. (1998) and Fabiani et al. (2005).

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Amazon announces stock split offering green in a sea of ​​red https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/amazon-announces-stock-split-offering-green-in-a-sea-of-%e2%80%8b%e2%80%8bred/ Thu, 10 Mar 2022 14:36:48 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/amazon-announces-stock-split-offering-green-in-a-sea-of-%e2%80%8b%e2%80%8bred/

Key points to remember:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) report hits projections
  • Stocks rebound as Russian official signals potential progress ahead of peace talks
  • The strength of the sector could change depending on the prospects for peace

Stock index futures were pointing to a lower open as Wednesday’s rally appears to lack the legs to continue into Thursday. Commodities are rebounding from yesterday’s strong sell-off, and that seems to be weighing on investors. However, today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will capture much of the attention of investors.

The CPI report measured a 0.8% increase month-on-month and a 7.9% increase year-on-year, meaning inflation rose as foreseen. However, these are still very high figures not seen since the early 1980s. Core inflation which excludes food and energy rose by 6.4% year-on-year, which was higher than expected by 5.9%. Stock index futures rallied on the report, but quickly gave back gains. All in all, there’s not much here that’s likely to push the Fed off the trajectory Chairman Jerome Powell outlined to Congress last week.

Investors are likely feeling the jolt of market swings, especially with 2% ranges. While there really isn’t anything that signals an end in sight, we can hope that the ranges will at least tighten.

US markets do not appear to be benefiting from a good trading day in Asia. The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose nearly 4% on lower oil prices. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose 1.27%, while the Shanghai Composite Index traded 1.22% higher. However, oil futures are trading higher again this morning, rising 5.25% before the opening bell.

As the Fed moves slowly to raise rates, some companies are looking to raise capital while interest rates are still low. AT&T (T) and Discovery (DISCA) raised $30 billion by selling 40-year corporate bonds for their joint venture. The long maturity allowed the group to offer a yield above 3%, which seemed to attract a lot of attention.

After the market closed on Wednesday, Amazon (AMZN) rebounded more than 8% on news that the company had approved a 20-to-1 stock split in February. Stock splits allow small investors to buy stocks without jeopardizing the diversification of a portfolio. AMZN also announced its intention to buy back $10 billion of its shares.

Market Minutes Review

Stocks rebounded on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (SPX) up 2.57% and testing the 4,300 level. We’ve watched this key level as support for the past nine months, but now it’s acting as resistance. . This level will be key for some traders. If the bulls are able to overcome the resistance, many traders can expect the rally to continue. However, if the resistance holds, the bears could push the benchmark to lower levels.

The rebound was prompted by the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry who said that Moscow did not want to overthrow the government in Kiev. I hope this is a good sign for tomorrow’s talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine would not give “a single inch” to Russia. Yesterday, President Zelensky said that Ukraine would no longer seek membership in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which has been the main point of contention for Russia.

The news led to a sell-off in commodities, which have seen a tear in the past seven trading days. Crude oil futures fell 11.33% on Wednesday, closing below $110 a barrel. Similarly, RBOB gasoline futures fell more than 10% and fuel oil futures fell 20% on the day.

Mains strength switch

If the peace talks succeed, there could be a change in the strength of the sector. Depending on how oil prices react, energy will likely pull back a bit as crude oil goes through a price discovery phase where investors try to focus on supply and demand instead of speculating on what might come next. with Russia and Ukraine. However, even before Russia invaded Ukraine, oil prices were still rising and analysts were forecasting prices ranging from $65 a barrel to $150 in 2022. This means energy stocks could pull back in the short term. term but increase in the long term. If so, energy could still be a strong sector.

Wednesday’s sector performance could be a bit of a microcosm of what’s to come in the near future if peace prevails. The energy sector was the worst performer, with the Energy Select Sector Index falling 3.11%. Financials and technology were the strongest, followed by materials and consumer discretionary. The Financial Select sector index rose 3.93% as the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) jumped more than 4% on the day and appears to be heading back towards a 2% yield.

If the threat of war lessens, the Federal Reserve is freer to be more aggressive in raising interest rates to fight inflation. Rising rates tend to benefit financials as the gap between savings and credit widens. In fact, the PHLX KBW Bank Index (BKX) rose 4.19% in reaction to higher yields.

If the resistance of the S&P 500 (SPX) holds, it is difficult to say how the sectors will react. Wednesday’s rally could just be a relief rally as the war between Russia and Ukraine is far from over. Therefore, there could still be a lot of anxiety that could prevent stocks from following today. However, war anxiety will make it difficult for the Fed to be aggressive on inflation, so inflationary sectors like energy, materials and financials could still benefit.

Measuring fear: Speaking of anxiety, the Cboe Market Volatility Index (VIX), aka Fear Gauge, fell 7.63% and is now trading just above 32. There are different levels on the VIX that can help investors gauge the degree of fear and complacency. It is important to remember that these levels are not exact due to the enormous volatility of the index. These levels have also evolved over time.

Measuring fear: Investor complacency tends to be highest when the VIX is trading below 15. This tends to happen during mature bull markets. Much of 2021 found the VIX at or below 15. However, in 2018 the VIX was as low as 10. When the VIX is around 20, investor anxiety tends to be heightened. This level often coincides with normal market pullbacks. At 30, anxiety turns to fear. In the early 2000s, this level tended to signal that fear was close to a capitulation point. When the VIX hits 40, investors typically hit a peak of fear. The VIX was around 40 years old when the dotcom bubble burst.

However, there have been times when the VIX has increased much more. When COVID-19 started arriving in the United States and breaking out, the VIX was hitting 90. Similar levels were reached during the 2008 credit crisis. The biggest spike on record was Black Monday in 1987, where the VIX exceeded 170.

TD Ameritrade® Commentary for educational purposes only. SIPC member.

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What is a payday loan? https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/what-is-a-payday-loan/ Fri, 25 Feb 2022 22:26:00 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/what-is-a-payday-loan/

payday ready are generally short-term unsecured loans characterized by high interest rates that generally do not require a credit check.

Although there is no exact and universal definition of the term, the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau indicates that this type of loan is usually $500 or less and is usually due on the borrower’s next payday. States have different laws governing these types of fast loans, but they may be available to Americans through in-store payday lenders or in line, depending on location. The due date on payday loans is generally two to four weeks from the date of issuance, and lenders generally do not consider borrowers’ credit scores or their ability to meet other financial obligations when approving the loan.

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To secure a payday loan, payday lenders often require a personal check from the borrower for the loan amount, plus interest and fees, for a future deposit. They often require direct access to the borrower’s bank account.

Payday lenders hold the personal check until the borrower receives their next paycheck, direct deposit or social Security Payment. Depending on the terms of the loan and the laws of the state in question, some payday lenders offer long-term repayment plans that allow them to make multiple electronic withdrawals from the borrower’s bank account.

The average term for payday loans is about two weeks, and loans typically range between $50 and $1,000. In exchange for quick loans that don’t require a credit check, payday borrowers typically pay exorbitant interest rates and fees on their loans. Payday lenders often charge annual percentage ratesor APR, of 400% or more on their loans, plus finance charges of between $10 and $30 for every $100 borrowed.

The only requirements to qualify for most payday loans are an opening Bank account relatively good standing, a regular income and a source of identification.

Because little consideration is given to the financial condition or creditworthiness of borrowers, the CFPB has found that payday loans have a high default rate of around 20%. Additionally, approximately 80% of payday borrowers renew or re-borrow their loans within 30 days of their initial loan.

Qualified state borrowers can apply for a payday loan online from companies such as MoneyMutual, CashUSA.com, and BillsHappen. Many payday lenders also have thousands of physical stores in the United States.

In times of financial emergency or life or death situation, payday loans may be one of the only places Americans have bad credit can turn to temporary financial assistance. However, due to widespread deception and predatory behavior in the payday loan industry, the CFPB, Federal Trade Commission, and other federal and state regulators have repeatedly warned Americans of the dangers of payday lending. payday and imposed restrictions on the activities of payday lenders.

A 2016 five-year study by Pew Charitable Trusts found that 12 million Americans take out payday loans each year, and those borrowers collectively pay $9 billion a year in loan fees alone.

  • Speed. Payday loans are fast, and lenders often approve the same or next day.
  • Ease of use. It’s usually easy to get approved for a payday loan as long as the applicant has a stable source of income, a bank account in good standing, and proper identification. Borrowers can even get payday loan approval online. While some critics say payday loans are inherently predatory, there are laws in place to protect the rights of borrowers.
  • Availablity. Depending on the situation, payday loans may be one of the only viable sources of emergency cash for borrowers with bad credit.

  • High cost. Payday loans can come with annual interest rates of 400% or more, and finance charges can be 15% to 30% of the loan amount. These high interest rates stand out even more compared to the national average of around 16.17% credit card interest rate or the average interest rate of 4.25% over 30 years mortgage end of February 2022.
  • Debt cycle. Due to interest and fees, a payday loan can easily force the borrower to put off the majority of their next paycheck, creating an opportunity for borrowers to fall into a cycle of repeat loans.
  • Harassment. Payday lenders have a reputation for exploiting financially vulnerable borrowers and using aggressive and harassing collection practices.

]]> BigPay is launching its digital personal loan product next week https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/bigpay-is-launching-its-digital-personal-loan-product-next-week/ Wed, 23 Feb 2022 16:38:34 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/bigpay-is-launching-its-digital-personal-loan-product-next-week/

BigPay, Capital A’s e-wallet offering, is launching a brand new feature where you can apply for loans with instant approval. It claims to be the first all-digital personal loan product in Malaysia.

According to the teaser image, BigPay’s personal loan product offers approvals as fast as 5 minutes and no paperwork required. The app will push monthly reminders and users should be able to make refunds easily within the app itself. BigPay is providing a presentation of its product next week and full details should be revealed very soon.

In case you missed it, BigPay received a provisional lending license in November 2020 from the Department of Housing and Local Government (KPKT). According to Capital A CEO Tony Fernandes, the license will allow users to get quick loans at low interest rates. He also said that although the B40 group will be the biggest beneficiary of the approval, the funding will also be available for others.

Besides BigPay, other companies such as Axiata Digital Capital, Grabfin Operations, GHL Payments, Presto Credit, JCL Credit Leasing, Fortune Tree Capital, and Hoop Fintech have also obtained a provisional license from KPKT.

BigPay’s personal loan offering comes at a time when several e-wallet players have started offering Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) products. Some BNPL options offer interest-free installments for a short term of 3-4 months, but these are often limited to retail and online purchases.

Personal loan offers greater flexibility as users can use them for emergency situations such as medical or household repairs. It could be used for debt consolidation or to fund a new business, provided interest rates are favorable. Since its introduction, BigPay and its physical prepaid card have been popular among international travelers as they offer lower exchange rates and ATM withdrawal fees. In addition to this, the app also offers money transfer services at lower rates than traditional banks. Recently, BigPay increased its wallet size to RM20,000, but it still does not support DuitNow QR.

BigPay has submitted its Application for Digital Banking License in Malaysia last year and hopes to offer full-fledged financial services to individuals, self-employed and MSMEs. Last year they also got $100 million (about RM418 million) in financing from South Korea’s SK Group.

Related reading

]]> Opposition attacks government over unemployment and privatization in Rajya Sabha https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/opposition-attacks-government-over-unemployment-and-privatization-in-rajya-sabha/ Wed, 09 Feb 2022 08:00:00 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/opposition-attacks-government-over-unemployment-and-privatization-in-rajya-sabha/

Opposition members of Rajya Sabha on Wednesday slammed the government over high unemployment and said the 2022-23 Union budget failed to address job creation and job creation. the increase in domestic demand.

During the general discussion on the 2022-23 budget, Dola Sen (Trinamool Congress) and Elamaram Kareem of CPI(M) also criticized the government for its “destructive privatization drive” and called the divestment policy a “Dirty India “.

Taking part in the debate, Sen said that when the BJP government led by Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, he said he would create 2 million jobs a year and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in his speech on the this year’s budget said the government would create 60 lakh jobs over the next five years.

“I want to ask who is telling the truth?” says Sen.

Along the same lines, AAP’s Sanjay Singh said the government’s claims that it would provide 60,000 new jobs was an admission of its failure to deliver on the past promise of 2 million jobs.

In fact, Sen said, even before the pandemic, for the first time after independence, the unemployment rate was the highest in 45 years.

“In just four years, from 2016-17 to 2020-21, despite Modiji’s Make in India policy, calls and pressure, the number of people employed in manufacturing (has) almost halved,” he said. she asserted. .

Noting that in India, 5 million young people join the labor market on average per year, she said: “(It’s) very unfortunate but it’s a fact that this budget has given no assurance to these young people. , women, migrant workers, unemployed employees, even MGNREGA workers.”

The allocation of MGNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) funds has been reduced, Sen lamented, adding that Rs 3,358 crore remains to be paid to MGNREGA workers “who get employment for only 100 days in a year”.

Sharing similar sentiments, Kareem said, “What was needed was to introduce an urban employment guarantee scheme. On the contrary, it reduced the expenses of MNREGA.”







He pointed to issues such as loss of income, worsening poverty and hunger, and rising commodity prices.

“No budget has been presented in the recent period at a time when the economy is going through such a difficult situation. In this scenario, what was needed in the budget was a strong push towards job creation and l ‘increase in domestic demand,’ he said, saying the budget failed to address those concerns.

DMK MP Kanimozhi pointed out that the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the plight of the poor and marginalized, led to job losses and affected sectors like tourism and hospitality and that “the road to recovery is still very dark.

She said the Union’s budget must balance short-term fiscal needs with structural reform, to support medium-term growth, given the Covid pandemic.

“However, nothing has been done in this regard and the road to recovery is very fragile,” Kanimozhi said.

She claimed that the only guarantee of the past three years was economic uncertainty, which the Omicron variant has now amplified.

Attacking the government’s privatization agenda, Kareem said, “The Union Budget 2022-23 was presented against the backdrop of a desperate and destructive privatization drive, oblivious to the needs of the common man… “

Sen also accused the BJP-led government of abusing its majority in both houses of parliament to privatize “national assets”.

“…Modiji’s Make in India has practically become Sale India,” she said.

She claimed that the government’s “national monetization pipeline” lacks the mandate of the people as the BJP “never mentioned anything about this massive economic overhaul in its 2014 and 2019 election manifesto”.

Kanimozhi also raised questions regarding the inadequate budget allocation for health and claimed that health care should be the top priority.

“Unless the budget allocation for medical care and infrastructure increases to 6% of GDP, the country may not be able to serve its 140 crore population,” she warned.

Opposition members have also sought to corner the government on its promises to double farmers’ incomes, housing for all and fast loans for eligible SMEs and start-ups.

“In 2022, all the promises are still a distant dream,” Kanimozhi remarked.

Against the Prime Minister’s claim that India is economically prosperous, Sen said the Global Hunger Index placed India in a dismal 101st place out of 116 countries and in comparison even Bhutan was better placed than India.

Calling on the government to focus its efforts on moving the country forward, Singh said, “Who are you to decide what people should wear, what they should eat or how they should live.

(Only the title and image of this report may have been edited by Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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What does the ownership structure of Hardwoods Distribution Inc. (TSE: HDI) look like? https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/what-does-the-ownership-structure-of-hardwoods-distribution-inc-tse-hdi-look-like/ Wed, 02 Feb 2022 11:23:22 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/what-does-the-ownership-structure-of-hardwoods-distribution-inc-tse-hdi-look-like/

Every investor in Hardwoods Distribution Inc. (TSE:HDI) should know the most powerful shareholder groups. Insiders often own a large portion of younger, smaller companies, while larger companies tend to have institutions as shareholders. Companies that have been privatized tend to have low insider ownership.

With a market capitalization of C$1.1 billion, Hardwoods Distribution is a decent size, so it’s probably on the radar of institutional investors. Our analysis of societal ownership below shows that institutions own shares in society. Let’s dig deeper into each type of owner to learn more about Hardwoods Distribution.

Check out our latest analysis for Hardwoods Distribution

TSX:HDI Ownership Allocation February 2, 2022

What does institutional ownership tell us about the distribution of hardwoods?

Many institutions measure their performance against an index that approximates the local market. So they usually pay more attention to companies that are included in major indices.

We can see that Hardwoods Distribution has institutional investors; and they own a good part of the shares of the company. This may indicate that the company has some degree of credibility in the investment community. However, it is better to be wary of relying on the so-called validation that accompanies institutional investors. They are also sometimes wrong. It is not uncommon to see a sharp decline in the stock price if two large institutional investors attempt to sell a stock at the same time. So it’s worth checking out Hardwoods Distribution’s past earnings trajectory (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider as well.

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:HDI Earnings and Revenue Growth February 2, 2022

Our data shows that hedge funds own 8.4% of Hardwoods Distribution. This catches my attention because hedge funds sometimes try to influence management or make changes that will create short-term shareholder value. Arbutus Distributors Ltd. is currently the largest shareholder of the company with 17% of the outstanding shares. Polar Asset Management Partners Inc. is the second largest shareholder with 8.4% of common stock and David Hughes owns approximately 1.4% of the company’s stock. Additionally, the company’s CEO, Robert Brown, directly owns 0.8% of the total shares outstanding.

A closer look at our ownership data shows that the top 25 shareholders collectively own less than half of the ledger, suggesting a large group of small shareholders where no single shareholder has a majority.

While it makes sense to study data on a company’s institutional ownership, it also makes sense to study analyst sentiment to find out which way the wind is blowing. There are plenty of analysts covering the stock, so it might be interesting to see what they are predicting as well.

Insider ownership of Hardwoods Distribution

While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. The management of the company answers to the board of directors and the latter must represent the interests of the shareholders. In particular, sometimes the senior executives themselves sit on the board of directors.

Most view insider ownership as a positive because it can indicate that the board is well aligned with other shareholders. However, there are times when too much power is concentrated within this group.

We can report that insiders hold shares in Hardwoods Distribution Inc. Its market capitalization is only C$1.1 billion, and insiders hold C$48 million of shares, in their own name. This shows at least some alignment. You can click here to see if these insiders have been buying or selling.

General public property

The general public, who are usually retail investors, hold a substantial 58% stake in Hardwoods Distribution, which suggests it is quite a popular stock. This level of ownership gives mainstream investors some power to influence key policy decisions such as board composition, executive compensation, and dividend payout ratio.

Private Company Ownership

We can see that private companies hold 17% of the issued shares. It’s hard to draw conclusions from this fact alone, so it’s worth investigating who owns these private companies. Sometimes insiders or other related parties have an interest in shares of a public company through a separate private company.

Next steps:

I find it very interesting to see who exactly owns a company. But to really get insight, we also need to consider other information. Take for example the ubiquitous specter of investment risk. We have identified 4 warning signs with Hardwoods Distribution (at least 2 which don’t sit well with us), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Ultimately the future is the most important. You can access this free analyst forecast report for the company.

NB: The figures in this article are calculated using trailing twelve month data, which refers to the 12 month period ending on the last day of the month in which the financial statements are dated. This may not be consistent with the annual report figures for the full year.

This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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What type of loan to choose? https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/what-type-of-loan-to-choose/ Tue, 04 Jan 2022 04:44:53 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/what-type-of-loan-to-choose/

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Modern borrowing possibilities are diverse, so much so that it is easy to be confused by the wide range of offers. In addition, complex loan conditions exacerbated the embarrassment, sometimes even explaining the type of loan and its limitless possibilities.

At the same time, get a cash loan is a responsible and serious stage in your life, so it is essential to understand and understand the nature of the loan. Equally important is realizing your abilities so that your choice does not cause harm and unnecessary anxiety. On the contrary, it will become a successful financial transaction.

The article discusses the types of loans: consumption, or cash, credit; auto loans; car rental; re-credit; maintenance loans; Mortgages; quick loans.

Before you start to study all types of loans, we recommend that you familiarize yourself with some basic principles, which will help you understand the nature of loans. If you are already familiar with the basics of loans and the important criteria that should be taken into account when choosing a loan, please click on the “Personal loan” link to go to the section which considers the first type in more detail. loan.

Loan: Concept, Signs, Issue order

A loan is a process of lending money or property to a party within a specified time frame. The participants in the legal relationship determine the procedures as well as the terms of debt transfer in the form of an agreement, including the useful life of the asset and accrued interest. In addition, loans can be given free of charge.

The main types of loans are:

  • ownership – provide for the free transfer of the object;
  • consumption (consumer credit);
  • banking.

Interest-free loans are usually granted by company management to employees, and the state grants certain categories of citizens. Given the primary goal of financial institutions to make profits, bank loans always earn accrued interest.

As an advantage of a loan, it should be noted that there is no overpayment, nor related to the credit history of the borrower.

The essential characteristics of loans that distinguish this type of small loan standard loans include:

  • Transfer the temporarily used property to another person within a specified period, after which the debt will be returned to the owner, in addition it can not be replaced with similar items or compensation;
  • There is no obligation to pay interest for the use of the property or the rent.

Credit: definition and types

Credit – Transfer of funds from the lender to the borrower according to the conditions of urgency, payment and repayment. In most cases, the lender is a banking organization.

According to the loan agreement, any natural person or company can become a borrower. The financing conditions stipulate that the amount of the debt, as well as the accrued interest, must be returned as soon as possible.

If the borrower refuses to perform his obligations, the lender has the right to initiate compulsory collection proceedings.

According to different loan methods, the loans are divided into the following types:

  • Consumers-used to purchase goods and services;
  • The banking sector provides targeted capital spending, including leasing and factoring;
  • Mortgages, funds used to purchase residential real estate;
  • Commercial – a form of interaction between counterparties involving the provision of installments or deferred payments;
  • Pawn shops provide funds backed by liquid securities;
  • State-Use low interest rates to finance natural and legal persons from the state budget.

Credit History – What Is It And How Does It Affect Getting A Loan?

Credit history is a snapshot of your financial obligations, including long-term fulfilled and unfulfilled commitments. In addition, it is essential to know that a credit history also takes into account the accuracy of the payment, including the timely payment of utility bills or other services.

Credit history is essential as it determines the formation of your other financial obligations; in other words, it directly affects your chances of getting the required loan.

After receiving the loan application, the lender will check the borrower’s credit history against the credit register and contact the borrower as necessary to request other information that can help the lender to assess, such as the source of the loan. income. It should be added that in the absence of work or official income, loans can be refused.

Suppose the credit history is negative or the borrower has unpaid debts. In this case, frequent late payments, a disproportionate number of unpaid loan obligations, etc., will reduce the likelihood of getting a loan.

Depending on the internal situation of the credit institution, the loan requested by the borrower may have a higher interest rate in the event of a monthly repayment or down payment. However, lending institutions can also refuse to grant loans due to damaged credit records.

How to apply for a loan?

If you could only apply for a loan by going to a non-bank lending institution or a bank branch, now there are more opportunities to do so, and it’s much more convenient.

Of course, you can apply for a loan in a known way – going to the lender’s office to complete the application form in person, but it can also be done remotely, for example by phone or by calling the service center at the lender’s customers.

The customer service specialist will ask the borrower’s questions during the dialogue instead of filling out the application form. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the borrower should have the right to access data, such as a passport or electronic identity document.

Conclusion

Depending on the maturity, the loans are divided into short term (up to 1 year), medium term (1 to 3 years) and long term (more than three years). Interest rates can be fixed or floating. In the first option, the interest on the loan remains unchanged for the duration of the loan contract. Finding information and quotes is very important, so you should read all of its terms carefully before signing a contract. If you have any questions, we recommend that you contact an expert, as they will be happy to tell you everything in a language the borrower can understand.

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Rising global COVID-19 cases will impact capital flows and increase inflation: Ind-Ra https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/rising-global-covid-19-cases-will-impact-capital-flows-and-increase-inflation-ind-ra/ Sun, 26 Dec 2021 09:27:10 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/rising-global-covid-19-cases-will-impact-capital-flows-and-increase-inflation-ind-ra/

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Rising COVID-19 cases around the world have the potential to impact capital flows as well as increase inflation, said India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). As a result, the agency said uncertainty over a third wave of COVID-19 has already started showing signs in stock markets.

He pointed out that foreign portfolio investors were the net sellers in Indian markets to the tune of Rs 103 billion in November 2021, while net debt liquidation was Rs 27 billion during the month.

“One of the main reasons for the sale was concerns about global inflationary pressure and the higher risk of COVID-19 in some of the developed economies,” the agency said in its Credit Market Monitoring report.

In addition, the agency said that there could be a negative impact on the company due to successive foreclosure, and in particular when the condition for national growth is still not generalized but the investment cycle shows green shoots.

In terms of capital flows, he noted that the tightening of domestic inflation and a reversal of ultra-accommodative policies in advanced economies have increased the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

The Monetary Policy Committee earlier this month left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that political support was needed to ensure sustainable economic growth.

“However, the RBI has been active through changes in the market microstructure by taking steps to bring money market rates towards the benchmark policy rate rather than the reverse repo rate.”

Therefore, the RBI announced a three-day floating rate reverse repurchase auction, instead of a seven or 14 day auction; the auction saw the banks park Rs 811.60 billion against the notified amount of Rs 2 trillion.

“The closing rate for floating rate repurchase agreements has moved closer to the ‘repo rate’, in line with rising overnight rates and depleting liquidity, while money market rates have increased . “

“Overall, rates have increased by 20 to 50 bps depending on term and credit profile.

In addition, commercial paper issuance by companies in November 2021 remained modest at Rs 727 billion due to an immediate need for funds and timid demand, while issuance by non-banks rose to Rs. 1,616 billion in November 2021 against Rs 292 billion in October. 2021.

“The number of ultra-short-term commercial paper issues has increased; the concentration of issues in the seven-day tranche is largely due to the financing of the initial public offering on the equity market. Easy liquidity had kept yields low across all tranches in November. 2021 “, the report says.

In addition, issuance of “certificates of deposit” (CD) by state banks in the primary market has remained low due to the high liquidity of the banking system and low credit consumption, while issuance by banks private loans increased by 30 billion rupees in November 2021..

“Loan growth has also remained subdued due to the lack of demand for large loans from businesses, while banks have remained cautious in anticipating increased strains on asset quality due to the COVID-19 pandemic and soaring commodity prices. “

(With IANS entries)

(To receive our electronic paper daily on WhatsApp, please click here. We allow sharing of the PDF document on WhatsApp and other social media platforms.)

Posted on: Sunday December 26th, 2021, 2:57 PM IST

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Here’s why I think the government’s optimistic forecast is an illusion https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/heres-why-i-think-the-governments-optimistic-forecast-is-an-illusion/ Sat, 25 Dec 2021 16:00:00 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/heres-why-i-think-the-governments-optimistic-forecast-is-an-illusion/

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OPINION: New Zealand’s contribution to economic theory is not deep. Indeed, our greatest economic claim to fame is the MONIAC ​​(Monetary National Income Analogue Computer), designed by Dr Alban William Housego Phillips, who called himself Bill, for understandable reasons.

Phillips designed a machine where water represented the flow of money through the UK economy. It became a success and a number were built. One of them was kindly donated to our reserve bank where a working model is kept in their museum.

I have been informed that they turn it on from time to time.

Finance and Expenses Committee / Facebook

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr expressed concern in August about the situation recent homebuyers might find themselves in, and since then prices have been rising rather than falling.

Despite this wonder, Phillips is best known for his eponymous curve. In 1958, Phillips wrote a short and detailed article revealing that there seemed to be a correlation between rising inflation and falling unemployment.

READ MORE:
* The Treasury unveils a superhero scenario for the economy
* What are the causes of inflation, and should we really be concerned about it?
* The Reserve Bank is in disarray

It was hailed as a revelation; governments could reduce unemployment by indulging in a little inflation; and they did. During the 1970s, there was worldwide acceptance that allowing prices to rise would result in the employment of the unwashed large.

Much to the delight of the Keynesians, this policy seemed to work for some time; until we have stagflation where high unemployment and inflation have existed as evil handmaids for almost two decades.

What Phillips actually said, if anyone had bothered to read his article, was that during times of high demand for labor, companies would make offers to raise wages. This Kiwi gentleman never said you could trade inflation and unemployment.

I mean, the paper is linked above. It does have a few graphics in it, but if even this aging hack can understand what Phillips was saying, it seems a generation of the best bureaucratic minds of the 1970s might have understood his analysis.

“The aim of the present study is to see whether the statistical evidence supports the hypothesis that the rate of change in monetary wage rates in the UK can be explained by the level of unemployment and the rate of change in unemployment. .. ”

Always; people read what they should read, not what is written. The Phillips curve has become a thing; and demystify it too. Seven Nobel Prizes have been awarded for showing that the imagined relationship is not real.

There is, however, a relationship between inflation and unemployment; that’s just not what Phillips observed. Unexpected inflation reduces unemployment; and that’s what drives our current economic winds.

Do me a favor.

If you run a cafe and notice that the prices for sausage rolls and soy lattes are increasing, or maybe you see that you have more customers than usual, a rational response is to increase your prices. Chances are some of your costs will go up, but others, like rent, salaries, and fixed rate debt, either don’t go up or are slow to go up.

RNZ

The Prime Minister remains firm on the hot potato pension policy, despite the Treasury warning that the cost of population aging is on an “unsustainable” path.

Your business seems more profitable. The sun is shining a little brighter. You can decide to hire a new server or finally invest in that pool that your long-suffering wife has wanted for many years. This translates into more people employed; either as servers or pool installers.

As time goes on, the rent goes up, wages match up with rising prices, and the mortgage goes up. You now understand that the extra profit was nominal. You might have more money at the end of each month, but that money only buys the same number of goods and services; because all the prices have gone up.

You will no longer be deceived. Higher incomes are not synonymous with higher prosperity if the costs also rise. It is true that the economy is benefiting from a temporary boom. After all, you now have a pool, and the increase in investment has resulted in new real economic activity. However, business owners quickly factor inflation into their calculations.

In this country, we have seen the rate of price increase go from less than two percent to five percent in one year. Unless you’re into hospitality or tourism, things look pretty good, and even in those industries the state has poured billions into keeping these operations alive. Bankruptcies this year are at record levels.

The economy is booming. Grant Robertson sings and makes predictions.

“Inflation is expected to peak in the March quarter of next year and then fall back over the remainder of 2022 to the Reserve Bank’s 2% midpoint over the remainder of the forecast period.”

It is an illusion; driven by our collective lack of institutional memory of what happened before. We feel richer. Real estate prices and the stock market are buoyant. Salaries have gone up. Price hikes mean businesses see more cash at the end of each month.

They will soon see through the conjurer’s deviation.

What is driving low unemployment and the current economic rush for methamphetamine are the unexpected price hikes. Robertson and Orr are working hard to convince us that inflation is transitory. It’s rational. For them. If businesses expect prices to rise 2.2% per quarter, as they did last time around, they will observe these changes and not change their employment and investment decisions.

Columnist Damien Grant

Things

Columnist Damien Grant

But if you think that inflation is caused by shipping issues and a one-off hit from quantitative easing, you may be fooled by inflation and the virtuous circle described above will be engaged. It is the idea that economists such as Milton Friedman and others contributed to economic theory. In the long run, we’re all dead, and so is the Phillips Curve. There is no permanent compromise between inflation and employment.

Although it has been exhaustively debunked on several occasions, the Phillips Curve has lasting insight. If you can fool most people most of the time, you can generate short-term economic stimulus and win re-election and re-appointment as reserve bank governor.

Dr Phillips’ curve should be consigned to the Trinket Museum, alongside his MONIAC ​​machine and the rubbish of degraded coins that make up the Reserve Bank museum, and not used as the basis for contemporary monetary policy.

* Damien Grant is an Auckland based business owner. He writes from a libertarian perspective and is a member of the Taxpayers Union but not of any political party.

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T Stock: Despite oversold, be careful with AT&T https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/t-stock-despite-oversold-be-careful-with-att/ Fri, 17 Dec 2021 21:07:47 +0000 https://piazzacarlogiuliani.org/t-stock-despite-oversold-be-careful-with-att/

Knife falling or buying from the bottom fisherman? This is the debate between investors and market experts when it comes to AT&T (NYSE:T). Down around 21% this year following a negative reaction from dividend investors to its restructuring plans, T-share on the one hand appears to be a deep value game.

Source: Roman Tiraspolsky / Shutterstock.com

At least that’s if you assume that the company itself and the shares of Discovery (NASDAQ:DISCA), (soon Warner Bros. Discovery) that shareholders will receive will skyrocket in the years following the divestiture.

On the other hand, Ma Bell looks like a value trap. It is a stock that is cheap on paper, but in practice fails to unlock its underlying value due to poor management decisions. He may be trying to convince the investing public that his last bet will pay off. Still, given how much his past strategic moves have failed, it’s helpful to take a critical look at these latest plans.

What is my point of view? I lean for the old position. However, meeting him today may not be the best solution. Loosening it up slowly or waiting for another drop may be the best solution.

Why does T Stock continue to decline

With regard to AT&T restructuring, the focus has been on the company’s planned dividend cut. Certainly, this is not a surprise. Going back to the days of the Bell system, this was a stock of widows and orphans. A boring, slow-growing company with a consistently high dividend.

This, of course, went out the window. As a result of Morris Trust’s reverse transaction that will split its media and telecommunications unit, it will no longer pay $ 2.08 per share in annual dividends. As a result, the market revalued the T share. By calculations of my Investor place colleague Mark Hake, after the spin-off, the effective dividend yield at the future of the shares will probably be around 6.5%, in line with its average yield in recent years.

Coupled with pessimism about the prospects for Warner Bros. Discovery (which will have the ticker symbol WBD) investors have little confidence that this deal will help unlock hidden value, despite strong “sum of the parts” arguments put forward by commentators since the restructuring. has been announced.

Still, I wouldn’t assume that T and WBD stocks will provide average returns to investors. While far from certain, everyone could see a big price jump in the years following the divestiture.

Looking for a push in the years to come

Value investors who bought T shares over the past six months have seen their positions slowly sink under water. But after its 21% drop in price, it might get to a point where it has been oversold. At today’s prices (around $ 23.75 per share), the potential long-term rise could far outweigh the short-term decline.

This is mainly due to the return of the WBD title. Like a In search of the alpha A contributor recently argued that the growth of its Discovery + and HBOMax streaming platforms as well as the reduction in costs could result in a doubling of the value of media spinoff stocks by 2025, implying future value for WBD stocks. which equates to $ 10 per share in value to AT&T shareholders.

What about actions in the core business of telecommunications? These, too, could increase in value in the years to come. With the spin-off reducing its debt to $ 43 billion, plus the potential for growth through the deployment of 5G, investors could return to AT&T in time, giving it an EBITDA multiple more in line with its rival. Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ). At today’s prices, Verizon’s enterprise value to EBITDA ratio is approximately 7.6x.

In the past 12 months, AT&T reported EBITDA of approximately $ 53 billion. Assuming that WarnerMedia segment EBITDA has remained stable, if we subtract its EBITDA for the year 2020 (around $ 8.9 billion), we get $ 44.1 billion EBITDA for the core business. Multiply that by 7.6x and the business is worth roughly $ 335.2 billion. Subtract his post-sale debt position ($ 166.5 billion) and add his cash position ($ 21.3 billion). After all of these background calculations, we end up with a net worth of about $ 190 billion, or about $ 36.60 per share.

Wait another drop before buying AT&T

Put together my estimates of potential value for AT&T Telecom and Media and what is trading today at around $ 23.75 per share could potentially be worth $ 36.60 per share.

However, don’t rule out the risk that it will drop further in the meantime. If DISCA stock continues to fall or the dividend cut is more severe than expected, stocks could drop below $ 20 per share before the restructuring is complete.

Despite this large gap between the stock’s current price and its potential value, you might still want to wait before buying T shares.

At the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not hold (directly or indirectly) any position in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, subject to the publication guidelines of InvestorPlace.com.

Thomas Niel, collaborator of InvestorPlace.com, has been writing unique stock analysis for web publications since 2016.

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