covid pandemic – Piazza Carlo Giuliani Thu, 17 Mar 2022 23:24:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 covid pandemic – Piazza Carlo Giuliani 32 32 A brief history of inflation in Aotearoa Thu, 17 Mar 2022 23:24:10 +0000

Inflation has reached its highest level in 30 years. So how did we get here and what awaits us?

First: definitions. Inflation describes the general increase in the prices of goods and services in the economy. Everything from food and fuel to health and housing. And the Consumer price index this is how we measure inflation. Every quarter, Stats NZ minions take a field trip to sample the prices of a representative basket of goods and services. The (weighted) average price of the basket of the day is compared to the basket of another moment. A positive change means a rise in prices – inflation. A negative change means lower prices – deflation.

The 1970s

The story of inflation in New Zealand over the past 50 years resembles a trilogy. And it starts in the 1970s. The 70s will be remembered for its flared jeans, high-heeled boots and even higher prices. Inflation averaged 11.5% between 1970 and 1980, largely supported by soaring oil prices. OPEC-sanctioned oil embargoes have seen oil prices more than quadruple. And as an economy heavily dependent on imported oil, New Zealand’s consumer prices have risen at the same pace. Inflation peaked at 18.4% in 1980.

In an attempt to control the upward spiral in prices, Prime Minister Robert Muldoon introduced a wage and price freeze in 1982. The policy certainly did the job and inflation fell below 5%. But the freeze was hugely unpopular. Profit margins were squeezed with sticky prices and workers wanted to take home more bacon. In 1984 the new Labor government was introduced and the policy freeze was lifted. But inflation returned to the highs of the 1970s. As many had feared and warned, the policy had simply suppressed inflation, not banished it.

Across the street, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was also working hard to rein in inflation. And in the 1990s, all eyes were on our island nation. The RBNZ had introduced a revolutionary approach to monetary policy known as “inflation targeting” – later adopted by central banks around the world. Initially, the target band was set between 0 and 2%. Soon after, inflation was successfully brought under control. And the credibility of the RBNZ in fighting inflation has been established.

Over time, adjustments have been made to the definition of the target. Eventually, a target range of 1-3% with an emphasis on the 2% midpoint was decided. And in 2018, an additional policy objective was added to the RBNZ mandate: to support as many sustainable jobs as possible. But the 2018 amendment was just a formality. Employment has always been taken into account when defining monetary policy. And that’s thanks to the work of pioneering New Zealand economist, Bill Phillips. The Phillips curve describes the inverse relationship between unemployment and wages. In other words, when unemployment is low, wages tend to rise. And rising wages put upward pressure on costs, which businesses pass on to consumers through higher prices, creating inflation. Central bankers have used the Phillips curve to predict inflation and set monetary policy accordingly. To curb inflation, central banks would raise interest rates. To generate inflation, central banks would lower interest rates.

The GFC and post-GFC

In the post-inflation targeting era, prices have held up well, with inflation averaging around 2%. But the second part of New Zealand’s inflation saga was relatively brief, cut short by the global financial crisis. Financial markets were in disarray and economies were under significant pressure. Inflation in New Zealand peaked at 5.1% with sharp increases in the price of petrol, food and cigarettes. The unemployment rate rose sharply from 3.4% in 2007 to 6.2% at the end of 2010. The RBNZ cut the cash rate in response. In the space of just nine months, the cash rate fell from 8% to 2.5%. Inflation fell below 2%. But even as the economy recovered and the unemployment rate fell to 4%, inflation remained mysteriously low. Part III saw the Phillips curve inverted in New Zealand and textbooks thrown out the window.

After the GFC, inflation had remained consistently below target, averaging 1.5%. Several theories have emerged in an attempt to explain this economic conundrum. One theory points to globalization and the influx of imports of cheap manufactured goods from emerging economies. Another to aging populations and the global savings glut. Technological advancement is also to blame: a TV today with “smart” technology selling for the same price as last year’s version is deflationary. These developments exerted downward pressure on prices. But with interest rates pushed to historic lows, central banks had little room to cut rates further to generate inflation.

The Return of the Beast

At the turn of the decade came the Covid-19 pandemic. And a new chapter in our inflation story begins, but one that sounds familiar. Because just like bell bottoms and waders, 1970s inflation is back. At 6%, inflation is at its fastest pace in 30 years. And there are several reasons for this.

First, base effects are in play. The 2020 lockdown has depressed demand, especially for oil, as economies have been turned off. The New Zealand economy even experienced a period of deflation. But in 2021, the recovery took hold and demand rebounded strongly. The annual percentage changes are therefore slightly exaggerated given that prices started at a low “base”. But we can’t hide behind math forever. Especially since inflation is expected to remain high for some time.

High imported inflation explains the initial peak in headline inflation. The price of oil has rebounded and Covid-related restrictions have disrupted supply chains. Shipping costs have skyrocketed and there have been considerable delays in sourcing goods overseas. Overall, it has become more expensive to move goods from ports to stores. But this cost pressure comes at a time when demand has been surprisingly strong. Job security has been well supported by fiscal policy. Easy monetary policy has made money cheap. And a closed border has left many households with cash in the travel jar. Spending on everything from swimming pools to pets was not lacking in demand. But a shortage of supply and resilient demand is a powerful cocktail for higher prices.

Inflation has yet to peak, with imported inflation continuing to rise. The omicron outbreak is adding pressure to already strained supply chains. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed up commodity prices, with global oil prices up 60% year-to-date. And a weaker New Zealand currency offers little compensation. An inflation rate starting with a 7 seems more likely every day.

But cost inflation should eventually run out of steam – although predicting exactly when is nothing short of a guessing game. What is more concerning is the dynamics of domestic inflation, as domestically generated inflation is more difficult to control. We have already seen non-tradable (domestic) inflation hit its highest level on record. And that’s three-fifths of all items in the CPI basket. So it’s not just about used cars and fruits and vegetables with more expensive price tags. The New Zealand economy is enjoying a rapid recovery and is now exceeding its potential. Demand continues to outstrip supply and this imbalance pushes prices up.

The job market is no exception. A capacity-constrained economy pushed the unemployment rate to 3.2%, a new record high. The pool of available talent is rapidly evaporating. Employers must pay to attract and retain workers. Wages are expected to rise, which means higher costs for businesses and therefore higher consumer prices. The triggering of this price-wage spiral risks making transitory price peaks more persistent.

Another concern is rising inflation expectations, as these have the potential to be self-fulfilling. If businesses and households expect prices to rise, which would erode expected profit margins and the purchasing power of a hard-earned dollar, then prices and wages should adjust now. Over the past decade, medium-term expectations have remained relatively well anchored at the target midpoint of 2%. But five-year expectations have since risen to 2.3%. The recent upward slide certainly calls into question the credibility of the RBNZ when it comes to fighting inflation.

Is inflation bad?

Reading this far, it might seem like inflation is the big bad bogeyman that needs to stay hidden. But high inflation can be a good thing. Especially coming out of a recession. It signals a strong and growing economy. What we don’t want is the bogeyman of inflation spending too much time outside the closet. High inflation for an extended period is what concerns us. Especially when wage growth does not follow the rise in the cost of living. At 2.8%, wages are progressing at a snail’s pace and households are seeing their real incomes erode. And low-income or fixed-income households are disproportionately affected, as food and fuel typically take up a larger share of the household budget for low-income households. And inflation hurts those who don’t have as much leeway.

Can we tame the beast again?

With the threat of inflation lingering, the RBNZ began to scale back the monetary stimulus it injected at the start of the pandemic. Last October, the RBNZ raised the policy rate for the first time in seven years. The cash rate was increased two more times in successive moves to 1%. And we still see eight hikes underway to reach 2.5% by the end of the year and 3% in 2023. The RBNZ has a lot of work to do to contain inflation and better balance the economy.

A rising cash rate means that interest rates in the economy have risen further. The days of a two-year fixed mortgage rate of 2% are long in the rear-view mirror, and a rate close to 6% is inevitable. Tighter monetary conditions should pull the brakes on economic activity – particularly in the housing market – and ease inflationary pressures. But only time will tell if we can tame the beast of inflation again.

Computational Medicine and Drug Discovery Software Market Expected to Witness Amazing Growth by 2029 Tue, 01 Mar 2022 18:54:44 +0000

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Hours of work, natural unemployment rate, etc. Thu, 24 Feb 2022 16:02:32 +0000

What are the latest thoughts on fiscal and monetary policy? The Hutchins Roundup keeps you informed of the latest research, charts and speeches. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup by email? Sign up here to receive it in your inbox every Thursday.

The labor market is tighter than low unemployment and labor force participation rates suggest, say Jason Faberman of the Chicago Fed and Andreas Mueller and Ayşegül Şahin of the University of Texas at Austin. Comparing the number of hours individuals want to work with those they actually work, they find that desired hours of work fell by 4.6% across all individuals between February 2020 and the end of 2021, nearly doubling. the 2.3% decline in labor force participation. These trends are mainly driven by inactive people and part-time workers changing the number of hours they are willing to work, rather than broad changes in the desire to enter the labor market. They are consistent across most demographic groups, with larger declines among those without a college degree. Notably, the authors do not find that desired hours declined significantly more for women than for men, despite documented gender disparities in child care burdens caused by COVID-19. The authors also show that workers in jobs involving some degree of social contact saw particularly large reductions in desired work hours, but those in low-contact jobs actually increased their desired work hours.

The unemployment rate soared at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic before falling back to pre-pandemic levels. The natural unemployment rate — the rate that is consistent with full employment and stable inflation — had a longer-lasting response, according to Richard K. Crump of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and his co-authors. The authors estimate that the natural rate of unemployment fell from 4.5% to 5.9% over the period 2019-2021, with the estimate driven by strong wage growth rather than rising inflation expectations or the level of inflation. Modeling the Phillips curve relationship – the trade-off between inflation and a slowing labor market – the authors estimate that the deviation of the real unemployment rate from its natural rate will push inflation up by 0.5 points percent above its long-term trend until the end of 2023, although long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. Recovering labor force participation could help ease wage pressures and lower inflation, although such changes are likely to occur in the long run, the authors conclude.

In the United States, wealth is more unequally distributed than income, perhaps because the rate of return on assets is higher for wealthier households. Using housing market data, Jung Sakong of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago finds that poorer households are more likely to buy a home during an economic boom – when expected returns are lower – and sell after a recession, when expected returns are higher. According to his calculations, a 10% increase in net worth is associated with an increase of about 12 basis points in annual return. Consistent with these trends, geographic regions with higher housing market volatility have larger differences in wealth inequality relative to income inequality. He concludes that government policies aimed at increasing wealth by encouraging home ownership could backfire.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is climbing

Graphic courtesy of The Wall Street Journal

“In my view, labor market conditions have been and are currently consistent with the FOMC’s maximum employment target, and as such I have focused on continued high inflation…I support the increase in the fed funds rate at our next meeting in March and, if the economy evolves as I expect, further rate increases will be appropriate in the coming months. I will be watching the data closely to judge the appropriate size of an increase at the March meeting In early March, the FOMC will finally stop expanding the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet The resulting end of our pandemic asset purchases will remove another source of unnecessary stimulus over the next few months, we will need to take the next step, which is to start reducing the Fed’s balance sheet by ceasing to reinvest the maturing securities already held in the portfolio. a level appropriate and manageable will be an important additional step towards tackling high inflation,” said Michelle Bowman, Governor of the Federal Reserve.

“I expect these measures to contribute to an easing of inflationary pressures in the coming months, but further measures will probably be necessary this year to tighten monetary policy. Beyond this spring, my opinion on the The appropriate pace of interest rate increases and balance sheet reduction for this year and beyond will depend on how the economy plays out, and I will focus particularly on the progress we are making in reducing inflation. would be to take strong action to help reduce inflation, bringing it back toward our 2% target, while keeping the economy on track to continue creating jobs and economic opportunity for Americans.

The Brookings Institution is funded through support from a wide range of foundations, corporations, governments, individuals, as well as an endowment. The list of donors can be found in our annual reports published online here. The findings, interpretations and conclusions of this report are the sole responsibility of their author(s) and are not influenced by any donation.

AbCellera (ABCL) stock: why the price has risen Sat, 12 Feb 2022 20:04:13 +0000

  • AbCellera (Nasdaq:ABCL) stock price rose 0.42% in the last trading session. That’s why it happened.

AbCellera (Nasdaq:ABCL) stock price rose 0.42% in the last trading session. Investors react positively to AbCellera by announcing that bebtelovimab (LY-CoV1404), the second antibody developed through AbCellera’s collaboration with Eli Lilly and Company (Lilly), has received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) ) from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Bebtelovimab is licensed for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults and pediatric patients (aged 12 years and older weighing at least 40 kg) with positive direct test results for SARS-CoV -2, and who are at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19, including hospitalization or death, and for whom alternative FDA-approved or cleared COVID-19 treatment options are not available or clinically appropriate. The authorized dosage of bebtelovimab is 175 mg by intravenous injection over at least 30 seconds.

As previously announced, Lilly had entered into a purchase agreement with the US government to supply up to 600,000 doses of bebtelovimab by March 31, 2022, with an option for an additional 500,000 doses by July 31, 2022.

And pseudovirus and authentic virus testing confirms that bebtelovimab neutralizes the omicron variant of the coronavirus – currently the predominant variant in the United States and pseudovirus testing with bebtelovimab demonstrates that it retains neutralization against all other known variants of the coronavirus. interest and concern, including BA.2. Previously reported data show that bebtelovimab is highly potent and binds to a rarely mutated region of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (Westendorf et al, biorxiv, updated Jan 7, 2022).

AbCellera’s response to COVID-19

AbCellera initially mobilized its pandemic response platform against COVID-19 in February 2020, resulting in the

discovery of bamlanivimab, the first monoclonal antibody treatment for COVID-19 to be tested in humans and cleared for emergency use by the US FDA. And Bbamlanivimab alone and with other antibodies has treated at least 700,000 patients, preventing COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths.

AbCellera’s second monoclonal antibody treatment for COVID-19, bebtelovimab, was developed to combat emerging variants. Pseudovirus and authentic virus testing confirmed that bebtelovimab maintains binding and neutralizing activity on currently known and reported variants of concern. And it’s being studied for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 both as monotherapy and with other antibodies.

AbCellera’s efforts to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic have identified thousands of unique human anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. These include bamlanivimab, bebtelovimab and other antibodies that are in various stages of testing by AbCellera and its partners.

Bamlanivimab and bebtelovimab were developed from antibodies that were discovered using AbCellera’s Pandemic Response Platform in partnership with the Vaccine Research Center (VRC) of the National Institutes for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). And AbCellera’s partner, Lilly, is responsible for the development, manufacturing and distribution of bamlanivimab and bebtelovimab.

AbCellera’s pandemic response capabilities have been developed over the past four years under the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) Pandemic Prevention Platform (P3) program. And the goal of the P3 program is to establish a robust technology platform for pandemic response capable of developing field-ready medical countermeasures within 60 days of isolation of an unknown viral pathogen. .


“At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, we and our partners prioritized speed in delivering therapies to patients. This resulted in the discovery of bamlanivimab, the first COVID-19 antibody to reach the clinic and receive emergency use authorization from the FDA. We then redirected our efforts towards the discovery of a next-generation therapeutic antibody, this time emphasizing maximum potency and the extent of neutralization. This led to the discovery of bebtelovimab, which neutralizes all known variants of concern, and is the most potent antibody in development against the Omicron variant, including BA.2. The discovery of two approved therapeutic antibodies less than a year apart demonstrates the power of our platform and its potential to rapidly generate the best therapies for our partners.

— Carl Hansen, Ph.D., CEO of AbCellera

Disclaimer: This content is intended for informational purposes. Before making any investment, you should do your own analysis.

Opposition attacks government over unemployment and privatization in Rajya Sabha Wed, 09 Feb 2022 08:00:00 +0000

Opposition members of Rajya Sabha on Wednesday slammed the government over high unemployment and said the 2022-23 Union budget failed to address job creation and job creation. the increase in domestic demand.

During the general discussion on the 2022-23 budget, Dola Sen (Trinamool Congress) and Elamaram Kareem of CPI(M) also criticized the government for its “destructive privatization drive” and called the divestment policy a “Dirty India “.

Taking part in the debate, Sen said that when the BJP government led by Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, he said he would create 2 million jobs a year and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in his speech on the this year’s budget said the government would create 60 lakh jobs over the next five years.

“I want to ask who is telling the truth?” says Sen.

Along the same lines, AAP’s Sanjay Singh said the government’s claims that it would provide 60,000 new jobs was an admission of its failure to deliver on the past promise of 2 million jobs.

In fact, Sen said, even before the pandemic, for the first time after independence, the unemployment rate was the highest in 45 years.

“In just four years, from 2016-17 to 2020-21, despite Modiji’s Make in India policy, calls and pressure, the number of people employed in manufacturing (has) almost halved,” he said. she asserted. .

Noting that in India, 5 million young people join the labor market on average per year, she said: “(It’s) very unfortunate but it’s a fact that this budget has given no assurance to these young people. , women, migrant workers, unemployed employees, even MGNREGA workers.”

The allocation of MGNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) funds has been reduced, Sen lamented, adding that Rs 3,358 crore remains to be paid to MGNREGA workers “who get employment for only 100 days in a year”.

Sharing similar sentiments, Kareem said, “What was needed was to introduce an urban employment guarantee scheme. On the contrary, it reduced the expenses of MNREGA.”

He pointed to issues such as loss of income, worsening poverty and hunger, and rising commodity prices.

“No budget has been presented in the recent period at a time when the economy is going through such a difficult situation. In this scenario, what was needed in the budget was a strong push towards job creation and l ‘increase in domestic demand,’ he said, saying the budget failed to address those concerns.

DMK MP Kanimozhi pointed out that the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the plight of the poor and marginalized, led to job losses and affected sectors like tourism and hospitality and that “the road to recovery is still very dark.

She said the Union’s budget must balance short-term fiscal needs with structural reform, to support medium-term growth, given the Covid pandemic.

“However, nothing has been done in this regard and the road to recovery is very fragile,” Kanimozhi said.

She claimed that the only guarantee of the past three years was economic uncertainty, which the Omicron variant has now amplified.

Attacking the government’s privatization agenda, Kareem said, “The Union Budget 2022-23 was presented against the backdrop of a desperate and destructive privatization drive, oblivious to the needs of the common man… “

Sen also accused the BJP-led government of abusing its majority in both houses of parliament to privatize “national assets”.

“…Modiji’s Make in India has practically become Sale India,” she said.

She claimed that the government’s “national monetization pipeline” lacks the mandate of the people as the BJP “never mentioned anything about this massive economic overhaul in its 2014 and 2019 election manifesto”.

Kanimozhi also raised questions regarding the inadequate budget allocation for health and claimed that health care should be the top priority.

“Unless the budget allocation for medical care and infrastructure increases to 6% of GDP, the country may not be able to serve its 140 crore population,” she warned.

Opposition members have also sought to corner the government on its promises to double farmers’ incomes, housing for all and fast loans for eligible SMEs and start-ups.

“In 2022, all the promises are still a distant dream,” Kanimozhi remarked.

Against the Prime Minister’s claim that India is economically prosperous, Sen said the Global Hunger Index placed India in a dismal 101st place out of 116 countries and in comparison even Bhutan was better placed than India.

Calling on the government to focus its efforts on moving the country forward, Singh said, “Who are you to decide what people should wear, what they should eat or how they should live.

(Only the title and image of this report may have been edited by Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

New ways to buy and sell farmland Tue, 25 Jan 2022 18:45:37 +0000

Farmers today don’t buy land with a handshake over the fence, like grandpa and grandma or even dad and mom might have done. Sales methods such as sealed bids and online auctions are becoming more common, and the key is to find the one that best suits the size, type and circumstances of the farm operation.

“There are more small parcels of land being sold by sealed tender,” says Sheldon Froese, a Manitoba realtor with Royal LePage Riverbend Realty Farm Division. “Generally it wouldn’t be on big farms, it would be on something without buildings.”

This has caused controversy in some communities, adds Froese.

“People might think they don’t have a fair chance to buy the neighbor’s land because it’s a sealed tender,” Froese says. “A lot of times we get involved to try to make the process a little more transparent, so people understand they have the right to make an offer. But at the end of the day, the seller has the choice to do what he wants.

Some buyers still prefer to go the traditional real estate route, although this process is significantly more complicated than before. The first question real estate agents typically ask their clients is whether they’ve spoken to their accountant and other professionals, Froese says.

“When I started doing this over 20 years ago, we went to see farmers when they were about to sell. We would list the farm, find a buyer and sell it. Now there’s a lot more involved,” says Froese. “There are tax laws people need to know, and if the reason for selling is retirement, they want to make sure they’re doing it right so they have enough money for retirement. For the buyer, he wants to make sure there are no hidden surprises, especially if he is buying a company rather than just assets.

A different approach to selling farmland

Saskatchewan real estate agents Tyler Badinski and his brother Vince are taking a different approach to selling farmland, and they report clients and professionals they deal with say it fills a void that’s going to be increasingly important. given the huge transfer of wealth about to take place over the next decade in agriculture.

“Today there are a lot of farmers over 55, with no succession plan in place, and that can make it difficult to sell, especially to family, because values ​​have inflated so much,” Badinski says. “Growing up on the farm, we had a succession plan, but no one knew what it was because we didn’t really talk about it. So, I’m passionate about helping our customers make sure they’re actually ready for it. What sets us apart is that we sit down with the lawyers, accountants, financial planners, agricultural advisers and say, “Is this client ready? Did they have the necessary discussions? Are they prepared for taxes? »

Tyler Badinsky.


If necessary, Badinski says he will advise a client to wait to sell if they are not ready.

“We actually talked one client off of listing his farm because he wasn’t financially prepared,” he says. “The tax implications were in the hundreds of thousands for him to sell at the time rather than wait a year or two later. We never advise outside of our scope of our license but growing up on the farm gives us a lot of understanding and empathy for what they are going through so I am able to communicate with customers about their situation and point them in the right direction. guidance as needed. »

Badinski, who founded Serca Realty five years ago, believes the role of agricultural real estate brokers is changing and a big part of that process is making sure sellers know the value of their lands.

“Another reason I got into this is to make sure sellers were made aware of the value of their land and that they weren’t leaving money on the table,” he says. “You always have to have a fair deal for everyone, but a fair deal shouldn’t be a buyer buying for $500 an acre less than he knows it’s worth just because the seller doesn’t. not.”

He also sees real estate being viewed as less of a one-deal deal going forward.

“If a Ma and Pa operation with 10 neighborhoods and no children to care for sold those 10 neighborhoods, it was still considered a one-time transaction, and that’s it,” says Badinski. “We take the approach that we sit down with our clients’ other professionals to make sure they are ready before, during and after the sale.”

The virtual world of agricultural real estate sales

Although farmers have long been accustomed to buying equipment at auction, and these auctions are increasingly taking place online, are they so eager to buy farmland in this way?

The answer is yes, according to Jordan Clarke, director of sales at Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers, which has been selling traditional and online auctions for 60 years in Western Canada.

Jordan Clarke.


“Farmers are certainly becoming more comfortable with online real estate auctions, and around Edmonton and northern Alberta it’s almost the preferred method,” Clarke says. “We have had very successful sales across Western Canada for farmland.”

To some extent, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused many companies to change their business model to online bidding, but online real estate auctions have been gaining momentum for several years as they offer a lot of convenience, flexibility and various options depending on the seller’s situation.

Selling real estate at online auctions is really no different than selling farm equipment. The ultimate goal is to create competition and get the best result for the seller, which practically opens up a much larger and potentially larger audience.

“The more people involved in the auction process, the more demand there is,” Clarke says. “Generally they bid against each other and push the price up. And that’s a very good scenario for a seller, because that’s what he wants, he wants competition and he wants to sell at the best price.

Online auctions may not be for everyone, but for some, especially retired farmers, the certainty of a sale can be a motivating factor to use this method instead of going through a real estate company or tender.

“With a farmer retiring, his farmland can represent up to 80% of his total wealth in some cases,” Clarke says. “Their retirement is integrated with their land, their improvements, their yard and their equipment. When they reach the point where they want to sell and move on to the next stage of their life, with an unreserved auction, there is certainty of a sale on auction day.

The internet has definitely opened up many more options in terms of selling agricultural real estate than ever before. Clarke says Ritchie Bros. may also offer a direct commission on the proceeds of the sale, or a guaranteed net price which is set before the auction and ensures that the seller gets a guaranteed amount regardless of what happens in the auction.

“Through our online marketplace, Marketplace-E, clients can also test the market with a reserve, so they can accept offers and see what their property is worth,” says Clarke. “We have an option that will cover any seller’s risk tolerance.”

There are also benefits for buyers.

“There are a lot more variables when it comes to selling or buying real estate, so buyers sometimes need more time to think things through,” Clarke says. “With an online or timed auction, they can pass that time, as opposed to a traditional live auction where the auctioneer sings for a minute, and they have 10 seconds to raise their bid before someone ‘one else does.’

Five years ago, most auction companies held live auctions, and it took a lot of capital to get into the auction business. Since COVID-19, with such a massive shift to online services, these barriers to entry have largely been removed, so many new businesses are offering auction services. Sellers therefore need to do their homework and ensure that the people they are dealing with are qualified and compliant with the rules and regulations not only for real estate sales but also for the auction.

“We sell from British Columbia to Manitoba and the rules and legislation are different for each province, so we have worked hard to ensure that we are 100% compliant with the requirements and rules of these jurisdictions to give confidence to our customers,” Clarke said.

Release the pressure

Whether they’re selling a few quarters or the whole farm, it can be a stressful process for farmers who have to make a tough decision about who to sell the land to, and that’s where an online auction can help. to relieve some of the pressure.

“The majority of our customers live in a rural setting, where they have friends, family and neighbors that they have worked and lived with for many years, and no matter who they end up selling to, there will be challenges. people who might be upset. didn’t get a chance to make an offer,” Clarke said.

“When a farmer puts land up for public auction, the pressure is no longer put on the farmer because everyone has an equal chance of clicking that auction button, and ultimately whoever has the highest bid receives this real estate.

Clarke also advises farmers not to sell themselves short. “Sometimes farmers don’t fully realize the competitive scope of the market,” he says.

“They may want to sell to a neighbor they like, and that’s fine, but there could be other people who would have paid more money. It’s a high-demand market right now, and there are farmers looking to expand, so they’re aggressive and ready to spend more money. Just because a certain amount of dollars per acre has already bought land in an area doesn’t mean it will tomorrow or the day after. Through the auction process, we can provide a clear guarantee that the low end is covered and there is price discovery on the high end with no cap on value. It really is the best of both worlds.

Regime change in the global economy Mon, 24 Jan 2022 21:12:00 +0000

In 1979, W. Arthur Lewis received the Nobel Prize in Economics for his analysis of the dynamics of growth in developing countries. With good reason: his conceptual framework has proven invaluable in understanding and guiding structural change in a range of emerging economies.
The basic idea Lewis emphasized is that developing countries grow initially by expanding their export sectors, which absorb surplus labor in traditional sectors like agriculture. As incomes and purchasing power increase, domestic sectors develop alongside market sectors. Productivity and incomes in largely urban and labor-intensive manufacturing sectors tend to be 3-4 times higher than in traditional sectors, so average incomes rise as more people go to work in the expanding export sector. But, as Lewis noted, it also means that wage growth in the export sector will remain depressed as long as there is a labor surplus elsewhere.
As the availability of labor is not a constraint, the key factor for growth is the level of capital investment, which is necessary even in labor intensive sectors. The returns from these investments depend on the conditions of competition in the global economy.
This dynamic can produce surprisingly high growth rates that sometimes continue for years or even decades. But there is a limit: when the supply of surplus labor is exhausted, the economy reaches what is known as the Lewis turning point. Typically, this happens before a country has moved out of the lower middle income bracket. China, for example, reached its Lewis turning point 10 to 15 years ago, which brought about a major shift in the country’s growth momentum.
At the Lewis turn, the opportunity cost of moving more labor from traditional sectors to modernizing sectors is no longer negligible. Wages are starting to rise across the economy, which means that if growth is to continue, it must be driven not by a shift of labor from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors. higher productivity, but by increases in productivity within sectors. Because this transition often fails, the Lewis turn occurs when many developing economies fall into the middle-income trap.
Lewis’ growth model is worth revisiting because something similar is happening today. When the global economy began to open up and become more integrated several decades ago, massive amounts of labor and productive capacity previously disconnected and inaccessible in emerging economies moved into the sectors manufacturing and exporting, producing spectacular results. Manufacturing activity has shifted away from developed countries and exports from emerging economies have grown faster than the global economy.
Due to the magnitude of relatively cheap labor in emerging economies (particularly China), wage growth in tradable sectors in advanced economies has been subdued, even when activity is slack. is not shifted to emerging economies. The bargaining power of labor has been reduced in developed economies, and the negative pressure on middle and low income wages has spread to non-tradable sectors as labor moved into the industry has shifted to non-tradable sectors.
But that process is largely over. Many emerging economies have become middle-income countries and the global economy no longer has large pools of cheaply accessible labor to fuel the earlier momentum. Of course, there remain reservoirs of underutilized labor and potential productive capacity, for example in Africa. But these workers are unlikely to enter productive export sectors fast enough and on a sufficient scale to sustain the pre-turnaround momentum.
The Lewis turn will have profound consequences for the global economy. The forces that have depressed wages and inflation over the past 40 years are receding. A wide range of emerging and developed economies are ageing, reinforcing the trend, and the Covid-19 pandemic has further reduced labor supply in many sectors, perhaps permanently. Under these conditions, the four-decade decline in labor income as a share of national income is likely to be reversed – although automation and other rapidly advancing labor-saving technologies may counteract this process to some extent.
In short, now that decades of growth in developing countries have exhausted much of the world’s spare productive capacity, global growth is increasingly constrained not by demand but by supply and supply dynamics. of productivity. It is not a transitory change.
An obvious consequence of this process is that inflationary forces have shifted dramatically. After disappearing or flattening for an extended period, the Phillips curve (which describes an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment) is probably back, permanently. Interest rates will rise alongside inflationary pressures, which are already forcing major central banks to withdraw liquidity from capital markets. — Project syndicate

Vantage Capital arranges R430m mezzanine financing for Collins Residential, one of South Africa’s largest residential developers Fri, 21 Jan 2022 10:45:44 +0000

Vantage Capital (, Africa’s largest mezzanine fund manager, today announced that it has arranged a R430 million mezzanine financing for the development of Seaton Estates, a coastal residential development located on the north coast of Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. The promoter of the transaction is Collins Residential, the residential arm of a diversified group with interests in the property, hospitality and agricultural sectors, both in South Africa and internationally. The Collins Group is a multi-generational family business, led by Murray Collins, which has its roots in construction since the early 1900s. Collins Residential has a proven track record in KwaZulu Natal, with previous developments including the Zululami Luxury Coastal Estate recently completed (adjacent to Seaton development), Mount Edgecombe Retirement Village and Emberton Estate.

Seaton Estates seeks to meet the growing need for residential accommodation in the mid to upper segments of the property market along the North Coast of KwaZulu Natal, one of South Africa’s fastest growing regions. Growth in housing demand is supported by strong out-migration trends, strong infrastructure investment in the region and the increased flexibility for South Africans to work from home, a lasting consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic. 19.

The Seaton Estates development sits on prime property with direct and exclusive access to one kilometer of beachfront. Seaton comprises 1198 unique residential settlements and 29 planned urban developments, spread over 7 phases. The development is designed to be an eco-friendly coastal estate characterized by countryside grasslands, ocean views and reclaimed native forest land. Development facilities will include recreation areas, a beach club, direct beach access, multi-sports facilities, 26km cycle/running paths and rehabilitated forests and natural parks. Later stages of development will include mixed-use commercial nodes, retail, educational and sports facilities. The development is close to the popular recreation towns of Salt Rock and Ballito.

Murray Collins the managing director of Collins Residential said: “Seaton represents a unique way of life on a large scale. As developers of this iconic estate, we are driven by a genuine commitment to the conservation and preservation of the natural landscape while designing within the framework of sustainable and meaningful development, to dramatically elevate the North Coast of KZN.

This transaction represents the 32n/a Mezzanine investment across four generations of funds in eleven African countries. Outside of South Africa, Vantage has invested in ten jurisdictions including Egypt, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda, Kenya, Mauritius, Namibia and Botswana.

Luc Albinsky, Chairman of Vantage Capital said: “KwaZulu Natal has been hit hard by the recent riots. We are delighted to be able to help restore confidence in the region by making our first mezzanine investment from Vantage’s fourth fund in this magnificent project, which will generate hundreds of jobs over its seven-year construction period.

Rochal Ramdenee, Associate Partner at Vantage Capital, added: “We are proud to support one of South Africa’s leading residential developers in what will be a transformative development for the North Coast of KwaZulu Natal. Seaton Estates directly meets the needs of buyers in a booming economic hub, while providing unparalleled access to world-class facilities and beautiful eco-friendly habitat.

Adaptive Consulting acted as financial advisor to the transaction, Werksmans Attorneys acted as legal advisor to Vantage, and other advisors included Webber Wentzel, PWC, JLL, Pro Africa, Citeplan and IBIS Consulting.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Vantage Capital Group.

For more information contact:
Luc Albinsky
[email protected]
Tel: +27 83 390 7703

Roshal Ramdene
Associate partner
[email protected]
Tel: +27 78 147 7839

About Vantage Capital:
Vantage Capital Group was established in 2001 and is the largest independent pan-African mezzanine debt fund manager on the African continent. It has raised over $1.4 billion in seven separate technology, mezzanine and renewable energy debt funds and has made 56 investments on the African continent to date.

Vantage has offices in Johannesburg and Cape Town and typically targets $10m to $40m mezzanine debt opportunities in more than a dozen key African markets. Mezzanine debt is an intermediate form of venture capital, which sits between senior debt, the least risky slice of the capital structure, and equity, the most risky. It combines debt and equity elements, providing companies with long-term financing on terms that are less dilutive to shareholders than pure equity.


This press release was issued by APO. Content is not vetted by the African Business editorial team and none of the content has been verified or validated by our editorial teams, proofreaders or fact checkers. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

Opinion: Why did hardly anyone see inflation coming? Tue, 18 Jan 2022 15:27:00 +0000 CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (Project Syndicate)—In 2008, as the global financial crisis ravaged economies around the world, Queen Elizabeth II, visiting the London School of Economics, asked, “Why didn’t anyone see it coming? High inflation in 2021 – particularly in the United States, where annual consumer price inflation hit a four-decade high of 7% in December – should prompt the same question.

Inflation is not as bad as a financial crisis, especially when price increases coincide with a rapidly improving economy. And while financial crises can be inherently unpredictable, forecasting inflation is an essential part of macroeconomic modelling.

To think that a stimulus of this magnitude would not cause inflation, one had to believe either that such a large adjustment was possible in a few months, or that fiscal policy was ineffective and did not increase aggregate demand. Both views are implausible.

miss the target

Why, then, was almost everyone so wrong about the US inflation story last year? A May survey of 36 private sector forecasters revealed a median inflation forecast of 2.3% for 2021 (as measured by the basic personal consumption expenditure price index, the de facto target indicator for Federal Reserve). Overall, the group put a 0.5% probability on inflation above 4% last year, but, according to the core PCE measure, it should be 4.5%.

But the most important forecasting lesson from the past year is humility.

The Federal Open Market Committee responsible for setting Fed rates fared no better, with none of its 18 members expecting inflation above 2.5% in 2021. Financial markets also appear to have missed this one. ci, bond prices giving similar predictions. Ditto for the International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office, President Joe Biden’s administration, and even many conservative economists.

Some of these collective errors resulted from developments that forecasters did not or could not expect. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, among many others, has blamed the Delta variant of the coronavirus for slowing the reopening of the economy and therefore driving up inflation. But Powell and others had previously argued that the rise in inflation in the spring of 2021 was spurred by a fast reopened because vaccination reduced the number of cases.

Both of these excuses are unlikely to be correct. The emergence of Delta, like the pandemic in 2020, likely kept inflation lower than it otherwise would have been.


Supply disruptions

Supply chain disruptions were another unforeseen development that would have sent inflation forecasts skyrocketing. But while the pandemic has caused real bottlenecks in production networks, most are producing significantly more than last year, with US and global manufacturing output and shipping strongly.

This brings us to a bigger source of forecast error: not taking our economic models seriously enough. Forecasts based on extrapolation from the recent past are almost always as good as or even better than those based on more sophisticated modeling. The exception is when there are economic inputs that are well outside the realm of recent experience. For example, the extraordinary $2.5 trillion fiscal support to the US economy in 2021, representing 11% of gross domestic product, was far larger than any previous fiscal package since World War II.

A simple fiscal multiplier model would have predicted that average output in the last three quarters of 2021 would be 2% to 5% above pre-pandemic potential estimates. To think that a stimulus of this magnitude would not cause inflation, one had to believe either that such a large adjustment was possible in a few months, or that fiscal policy was ineffective and did not increase aggregate demand. Both views are implausible.

The economic models also gave us substantial reason to believe that several factors would reduce the potential of the U.S. economy in 2021. These included premature deaths, reduced immigration, lost capital investment, costs of hardening of the economy to COVID-19, pandemic-induced outflows from the workforce, and all the difficulties of rapidly reassembling an economy that had been torn apart. These constraints made it very likely that additional demand would push inflation even higher.

The job offer

A final set of errors occurred because our models lacked key inputs or interpretations. Since people relied on economic models, they often used a Phillips curve to predict inflation or changes in inflation with the unemployment rate. But those executives struggled to factor in the fact that the natural unemployment rate has likely increased, at least temporarily, due to the COVID-19 crisis.

More importantly, unemployment is not the only way to measure economic downturn. Pre-pandemic estimates show that the “quit rate” and the ratio of unemployed to job vacancies are better predictors of wage and price inflation. These other underemployment indicators were already stretched at the start of 2021 and were very stretched in the spring.

Looking back, the mental model I find most useful for thinking about 2021 is to apply fiscal multipliers to nominal GDP, use them to predict how much of the fiscal stimulus will be spent, then try to predict real GDP by understanding what is the production capacity of the economy. The difference between the two is inflation.

The multipliers indicated that total spending in 2021 would increase a lot, while the production constraints suggested that production would not increase as much. The difference was higher than expected inflation.

What awaits us

Where does this leave us in understanding inflation in 2022? Instead of making inertial predictions that the future will look like the past, taking our models seriously means factoring in high levels of demand, persistent supply constraints, and increasingly tight labor markets with wages rapidly rising nominal rates and higher inflation expectations. Some types of inflation, notably goods price inflation, are expected to decline this year, but others, including services inflation, are expected to rise.

So I expect another year of significant inflation, maybe not as high as 2021 but likely in the 3-4% range. But the most important forecasting lesson from the past year is humility. We should all add large margins of error around our expectations and be prepared to update our outlook as the economic situation evolves.

Jason Furman, professor of economic policy practice at Harvard Kennedy School and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is a former chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.

More views on inflation

Rex nut: Why Interest Rates Aren’t Really the Right Tool for Controlling Inflation

Pierre Morici: Why wait? The Federal Reserve should raise interest rates now

Otmar Issing: Stop Adding Fuel to the Fire of Inflation with Easy Money Policies

Latest Trends, Key Market Dynamics, Revenue and Business Opportunities – Industrial IT Sun, 02 Jan 2022 03:56:31 +0000

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